Trump has sold the "serial gun" of tariffs again! Non-farmers will challenge dove bets

This week, market sentiment was nervous due to www.xm-bx.communication and seasonal factors among central banks, and the focus turned to Fed officials and their global colleagues, all weighing the changing economic conditions. Powell's speech on Rhode Island changed the market focus again, highlighting the downside risks facing employment and noting that the recruitment momentum has "sharply declined."

Federal Governor Bowman, a well-known dovish figure, further pushed this view, calling for a more positive stance to avoid “lagging behind the situation.”

The market responded to Powell's reminder that "stock valuation is quite high", which puts additional pressure on the US stock market. As volumes diminished, stocks pulled back from recent highs, following the classic “Yongpu sell-off” pattern, resulting in a three-day pullback in the stock market, with the S&P 500 and the broader stock index back in the familiar September headwind.

However, the dollar performed well, driven by strong technical catalysts and better-than-expected U.S. data that suppressed markets’ optimistic bets on interest rate cuts in 2026.

As the latest initial report shows, strong U.S. employment data and current good macroeconomic conditions have www.xm-bx.comed the U.S. dollar recover lost ground, highlighting the relative advantages of the U.S. economy over its global peers.

The tension can also be seen in the latest headlines of the US "Secretary of War" Hegses convened all Army generals to convene a meeting. This atmosphere may actually be one of the reasons why metal prices are so strong, gold hit a new high this Tuesday, with platinum reaching a 12-year high, whiteSilver also broke through $46 and is working to hit an all-time high.

The metals and the US dollar have maintained continued strong performance, but the most eye-catching www.xm-bx.commodity is undoubtedly oil.

This week, crude oil prices quietly rose by nearly 5% and reached weekly highs at the close. As Europe moves further away from the Russian oil theme, it seems that it is starting to have an impact on oil prices.

The worst performance this week were cryptocurrencies, with their strong annual performance being hit. Although they remain at fairly high levels, their price movements are more like a minor correction than a simple pullback: Ethereum has fallen below the $4,000 mark as of the time of posting, and Bitcoin is a little short of $110,000.

Forex Market:The US dollar index overall showed a "weak first and strong" pattern this week. The market driven mainly www.xm-bx.comes from the repricing expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut and the unexpected performance of macro data. The consecutive declines at the beginning of the week were mainly due to investors repricing the Fed's interest rate cut path; starting from Wednesday, U.S. Treasury yields have stabilized, coupled with a sharp correction in the second quarter of the United States GDP, the number of initial requests plummeted, and the U.S. index strengthened continuously, hitting a new high in the past three weeks on Thursday and closing at 98.18 on Friday. In terms of non-US currencies, affected by the strong US dollar trend, the euro, pound, Australian dollar and Japanese yen all recorded overall declines this week. The euro closed down for the first time in four weeks, the pound and Australian dollar fell against the US dollar for the second consecutive week, and the US dollar rose against the Japanese yen for the second consecutive week.

Gold Market:Gold prices fluctuate significantly this week. Overall, spot gold fell under pressure after hitting a new high, but it still maintained a strong range above $3,700. Gold prices broke through the $3,790 mark intraday, and fell rapidly on Wednesday under the pressure of the strong dollar. Spot silver continued to explode, with outstanding performance this week, reaching $46 per ounce during the session. Spot gold and silver both recorded an increase for the sixth consecutive week, closing at $3760.53/ounce and $46.07/ounce, respectively, up 2.05% and 7.04% respectively.

Crude oil market: International oil prices are expected to record the largest single-week increase in the past three months this week. Both U.S. and Blanc oil rose by more than 4%, mainly driven by the dual force of Ukraine's attack on Russia's energy infrastructure and the unexpected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories. In addition, the U.S. economic data is stronger than expected, and the news that Iraq's Kurdish region resumed oil exports have also had a certain impact on oil prices.

Review of the weekly news

1. Disputes and policy differences in the Fed's interest rate cut

Early Wednesday morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spoke, emphasizing the two-way policy risks, and cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week to 4% to 4.25% to be close to the neutral position. The current interest rate is flexible, and the policy will be dynamically adjusted based on data and risk assessment, and no path to subsequent interest rate cuts has been clarified. US Treasury Secretary Bescent Bescent criticized the failure to make a clear interest rate cut agenda and praised the new director Milan's radical position. This week, several officials expressed their statements highlighting internal policy differences, and dot maps show that this year mayThe interest rate cut was two more times, but the rhythm and amplitude were controversial. Some officials advocate further easing, such as Milan tends to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at one time, with a cumulative drop of 1.5 percentage points this year; Bowman believes that the rate cut last week is just the first step; Daly www.xm-bx.coms further interest rate cuts. Another part of officials is cautious, such as Bostic's advocate of only one interest rate cut this year. In addition, Logan proposed to switch to the general collateral interest rate of three parties, and several former policy makers jointly warned the Supreme Court that Trump should not be allowed to remove Fed Director Cook.

2. Risks of U.S. government shutdowns and data crisis

The deadline for the fiscal year on September 30 is approaching, and the deadlock in negotiations on the appropriation agreement puts the U.S. government at risk of shutdowns. This closure may involve permanent layoffs for the first time, and may also disrupt the release of key data such as non-agricultural and CPI, causing greater uncertainty between the market and the Federal Reserve. Trump's meeting with senior Democratic Party members was cancelled on Thursday, and he made a tough statement to push up the possibility of a shutdown. The core of the deadlock is health insurance policy. The Democrats demanded the extension of the Affordable Care Act tax credit. Trump hit back hard and accused the Democrats. At the same time, the White House requires departments to prepare a "staff reduction" plan for the shutdown, intending to lay off employees on a large scale, inclining to permanently reduce the size of government personnel, which will significantly escalate the risk of a government shutdown next week.

3. Trump throws out serial tariffs

U.S. President Trump expands trade protectionism and plans to impose high tariffs on a variety of imported goods starting from October 1, such as 25% for heavy trucks, 50% for kitchen cabinets and bathroom cabinets, etc. Based on the survey results of Article 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, it aims to protect the domestic manufacturing industry. On September 2, the US Department of www.xm-bx.commerce launched a 232 investigation into imported robots and other departments, and submitted policy recommendations within 270 days. The Trump administration also weighs new plans to reduce its dependence on overseas semiconductors. On September 24, the United States officially announced the implementation of the US-EU trade agreement, imposing a 15% tariff on EU imported cars and other goods. Some www.xm-bx.commodities were exempted, but the tariff issues on steel and aluminum products were not resolved, and the EU's proposal was not responded to by the United States.

4. The Ministry of www.xm-bx.commerce takes multiple measures to maintain fair trade

On September 25, the Ministry of www.xm-bx.commerce of China announced a series of measures to maintain the fair trade environment. In terms of measures against the United States, three American www.xm-bx.companies were included in the list of unreliable entities, and related import and export activities were prohibited; three American entities were included in the list of export control controls and exports were prohibited. In terms of trade relief and barrier investigation, an anti-dumping investigation was launched on imported pecans originating from the United States and Mexico, and a trade and investment barrier investigation was launched on Mexico's measures to increase tariff rates. In terms of multilateral and bilateral economic and trade stances, China has promoted reforms in the WTO negotiations, implemented global development initiatives, urged the US to cancel unreasonable tariffs on soybean trade, emphasized that the obstacles to Sino-US economic and trade cooperation lies in the unilateral restrictions on the US, and hoped that the US would promote the stable development of relations.

5. Trump's position on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has taken a sharp turn

Trump adjusted his attitude towards the Russian-Ukrainian conflict during the United Nations General Assembly, saying that Ukraine can recover all its territory with the www.xm-bx.com of the EU and NATO, criticizing the Russian war for being "blindly inefficient", andHis previous position on "land exchange" was very different. He promised the United States to continue to supply military force to NATO, demanded that Europe take responsibility for sanctions against Russia, and ruled out the possibility of US sending troops. Zelensky warned that Russia's aggression might expand, saying he was ready to step down. Putin had no intention of peace talks. The Kremlin responded to Trump's statement being clearly influenced by Zelensky and emphasized Russia's economic stability. On September 25, the North American Air Defense www.xm-bx.command said that US fighters intercepted four Russian fighter jets flying near Alaska, but Russia has no response yet.

6. Macron "challenges" Trump's talk about the conflict in Gaza

At a closed-door meeting during the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Trump promised Arab and Muslim leaders that the United States would not allow Israel to annex the West Bank, eased external concerns. Participants pointed out that without the www.xm-bx.com of the United States, Netanyahu was restricted in movement. The meeting also involved sensitive issues such as the construction of settlements in Gaza, and Trump sent a positive signal. However, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to escalate, and the UK, Canada, France and Australia recognize the Palestinian state, triggering a rebound from Israel's far-right. Netanyahu plans to meet with Trump to decide whether to advance annexation, and if it advances, it will endanger the Abraham Agreement. French President Macron said that if Trump wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize, he must push for the end of the Gaza conflict and emphasize the U.S. influence and responsibility over the Israeli arms supply.

7. The US Treasury Secretary plans to assist Argentina in stabilizing the economy

US Treasury Secretary Bescent announced that the Trump administration has studied providing Argentina with a financial aid package of up to $20 billion, which may include currency swap quotas, aiming to www.xm-bx.com Mile to stabilize the economic situation before the October 26 midterm elections. After Mile took office at the end of 2023, he lowered the monthly inflation rate through reforms such as reducing spending, but as the economy shrinks, the reform faces domestic opposition and the unemployment rate rises. The use of the foreign exchange stability fund to aid Argentina may mark the upgrade of U.S. aid, which can be used to provide loans to foreign countries facing serious financial difficulties, and the Finance Minister has full control over its use. After the news came out, Argentina's assets rebounded sharply.

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