The US dollar index fluctuates downward, gold breaks through 3830 and hits a new record high

On September 30, early trading in the Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.03. On Monday, affected by the possible shutdown of the U.S. government, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated downward and fell below the 98 mark, eventually closing down 0.24% to 97.94. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.144%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.635%. Spot gold continued to make rapid progress after breaking through the $3,800 mark in the Asian session, and finally closed up 1.95% to $3,830 during the US session, closing at $3,833.76/ounce; spot silver also rose during the Asian session, and then fell into range fluctuations, finally closing up 1.84% to $46.91/ounce. Crude oil fell 3% as OPEC+ plans to increase production again in November. WTI crude oil fell by more than 3% during the day and fell to an intraday low of $62.83, finally closing down 3.06% to $62.98/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 2.89% to $66.66/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar hovered around 98.03. The dollar usually weakens before the government shutdown, but often rebounds once the problem is resolved. However, the situation is special, and market pricing faces greater risks: if the shutdown lasts for a longer period of time, it may lead to delays in the release of key economic data, including Friday's non-farm employment report - which is expected to show 59,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Technically, if the U.S. dollar index falls back to 97.92 below 50MA, it will move towards its nearest www.xm-bx.com level, that is, it is located in the range of 97.10–97.30.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.1718. The highlight of the euro is the preliminary CPI in September in Italy, France and Germany on Tuesday, and the overall CPI in the euro zone on Wednesday. If the data shows that inflation continues to cool down, it may rekindle the market's bet on additional interest rate cuts, lowering the euro to 1.1650; on the contrary, if inflation is stubborn and www.xm-bx.combined with the US non-agricultural market, the euro may rebound. Dekindos' remarks suggest that a strong euro has become a policy pain point, and this week's data may catalyze the adjustment of expectations. Technically, if the EUR/USD closes above the 50 moving average of 1.1758, it will move towards the resistance level 1.1785-1.1800.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3421. The intensity of safe-haven funds flowing into the US dollar has been further weakened, starting a new week. Although market tensions ease in the short term, the risk of the U.S. government shutdown remains. The pound/USD successfully entered the second consecutive trading day of upside on Monday, with an increase of one-fifth percentage point as the inflow of USD (USD) continues to decline. The GBP has gained enough room to return to the 1.3400 mark, while the latest UK GDP growth figures will be released on Tuesday. Technically, the pound continued its bullish recovery slowly and painfully after it fell to a seven-week low last Thursday. Technically, the closest resistance level of GBP/USD is in the range of 1.3485–1.3500. If GBP/USD successfully closes above the 1.3500 level, it will move towards the next resistance level 1.3485–1.3500.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Tuesday, gold hovered around 3840.45. It is not accidental that gold broke through $3,800, but an inevitable product of the shift in monetary policy, the accumulation of political risks, and the continued geopolitical conflict. Under the triple effects of the opening of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, the U.S. government shutdown crisis, and the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, gold's hedging attributes and financial attributes have formed a rare resonance. Looking ahead, if the shutdown crisis resolves and economic data continues to be strong, gold prices may face a short-term correction; but if uncertainty continues or geopolitical conflicts escalate, there is still a lot of room for the gold bull market. Investors should pay close attention to key events this week and grasp this golden opportunity rationally to avoid missing out on opportunities in market volatility.

Technical: Gold prices continued to rise on Monday, and buyers' next goal is to test $3,850. The first key www.xm-bx.com for gold prices is at $3,800. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought, it remains at the 70-80 level, which indicates that bulls still dominate. On the downside, if gold prices plummet below $3,800, it is expected to fall further. The next www.xm-bx.com for gold prices will be $3,750. Then there is $3,700 and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) $3,666.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Tuesday, crude oil trading was around 62.85. Oil prices closed down 3% on Monday, OPEC+ plans to increase oil production again in November, and Iraq's Kurdistan region resumes exporting oil through Turkey, increasing global supply prospects.

Technical: The volatility indicator shows that the current oil price is bullish, but because within 2 months, the number of days above the zero axis is less than 5 days, the RSI fluctuates almost around 50, and MACD has not significantly pulled out a long red column recently, so the oil price is still inclined to fluctuate overall, and there is no obvious bullish trend.

Foreign exchange market trading reminder on September 30, 2025

20:50 European Central Bank Governor Lagarde delivered a speech

21:00 US FHFA house price in July Index Monthly Rate

21:00 US July S&P/CS 20 major cities with unseasonal adjustments in the annual rate of housing price index

21:00 US July S&P/CS 20 major cities

21:00 US September Chicago PMI

22:00 US August JOLTs job vacancy

22:00 US September Consulting Chamber of www.xm-bx.commerce Consumer Confidence Index

The next day at 01:00 US Federal Reserve Gulsby delivered a speech

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