Wonderful Introduction:
A quiet path will always arouse a relaxed yearning in twists and turns; a huge wave, the thrilling sound can be even more stacked when the tide rises and falls; a story, only with regrets and sorrows can bring about a heart-wrenching desolation; a life, where the ups and downs show the stunning heroism.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Group】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be www.xm-bx.comful to you! The original content is as follows:
Stock market and bond market www.xm-bx.com: The three major U.S. stock indexes performed strongly in September, the S&P 500 hit the largest September increase in 15 years, and the Nasdaq rose for six consecutive months. Risk preferences heated up to attract foreign capital inflows, indirectly boosting demand for the US dollar; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilized at 4.1464%, and the spread advantage has not been significantly weakened.
Dooms within the Federal Reserve are disturbed: New Director Stephen Miran called for a sharp drop in interest rates to 2.5% or lower. Although Wall Street questioned, it has aggravated market concerns about policy differences. The US dollar index fell to a low of 97.63 on October 1, and rose only slightly by 0.02% in the late trading.
After the risk of government shutdown: Although the suspension is avoided in the short term, the two parties have not reached a substantial consensus on budget differences. The market is worried that the negotiation deadlock may restart in mid-to-late October, and the allocation demand of safe-haven funds for the US dollar has become cautious.
Dangerous negative: The euro zone's CPI year-on-year increase in September fell to 1.8%, lower than expected 2.0% and the previous value of 2.2%, hitting 3 in 2024The market's expectations for the ECB to release a loose signal in October have heated up, and the euro/dollar surged to 1.1780 and then fell back to 1.1768.
Positive www.xm-bx.com: OECD raised global growth expectations to 2.9%, emphasizing that the eurozone economic resilience exceeded expectations, and Germany's industrial output is expected to rebound by 1.2% in the fourth quarter, providing a fundamental bottom for the euro and limiting the decline.
Neutral bearish: The UK manufacturing PMI has been below the boom-bust line for six consecutive months, and industrial weakness suppresses the upward space of the pound; and the Bank of England's probability of maintaining interest rates in October is only 58%, and policy uncertainty intensifies wait-and-see sentiment.
Potential positive: The UK's GDP correction value in the second quarter is in line with expectations, and the service industry output exceeds expectations. If the September Nationwide housing price index released on October 2 exceeds expectations, it may temporarily boost the pound, pay attention to the breakthrough of the 1.3460 resistance level.
Triple negative resonance: OPEC+ considers meeting on October 5 to accelerate production increase, and plans to increase production by about 500,000 barrels per month in the next three months. WTI crude oil plummeted 1.70% to US$62.37 per barrel on October 1, and the high correlation between the Canadian dollar and crude oil 0.8 puts it directly under pressure; the aftermath of the Bank of Canada's interest rate cut in September has not yet subsided, and the probability of another decline in October rose to 48%, and the interest rate spread between the two countries widened to more than 150 basis points.
Weak www.xm-bx.com: US EIA crude oil inventories fell by 7.257 million barrels, and Cushing's inventory dropped sharply by 3.028 million barrels, easing concerns about oversupply in the short term may narrow the decline in the Canadian dollar.
High-favorable drive: China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in September, recovering for the second consecutive month. The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs reached 51.9% and 51.6% respectively, indicating improvement in demand. The Australian dollar, as a trade-related currency in China, was www.xm-bx.comed, and the Australian dollar/USD stood firm at 0.6480.
Bad negative suppression: The plummeting crude oil has dragged down the overall sentiment of www.xm-bx.commodity currencies, and the RBA's easing expectations have not been www.xm-bx.completely eliminated, limiting the Australian dollar's rebound height, and the resistance level is seen at 0.6520.
Badministrative constraints: China-US interest rate spread is still at a high level, and the "swap" limit increase policy will take effect only on October 13, short-term foreign capital inflows are limited, and the rebound space of the RMB is suppressed.
Bonus www.xm-bx.com: U.S. recession expectations heat up(JP Morgan predicts a probability of 60%), safe-haven funds flowed to the Japanese yen, and the US dollar/JPY fell slightly to 143.67 on October 1, and did not strengthen simultaneously with the US dollar index.
Bond negative suppression: The Bank of Japan's policy normalization pace is slow, and the market expects interest rate hikes in 2025 to be only 44bp, the interest rate spread with the Federal Reserve remains, and the yen's increase is limited.
The current foreign exchange market is dominated by the three factors of "policy difference + www.xm-bx.commodity price + data wave". The short trend of the US dollar/Canada dollar is clear, and short orders can be laid out whenever the rebound; the euro/US dollar, pound/US dollar are in a volatile pattern, and we need to wait for the CPI and employment data to break the balance; the RMB is relatively strong in the short term, and can hold US dollar/RMB short orders to see 7.1600. During the operation, we need to focus on the OPEC+ meeting and the forward-looking signals of the US non-agricultural data to prevent sudden changes in the market caused by the news.
The above content is all about "【XM Group】: Collection of Positive and Negative News that Influences the Foreign Exchange Market". It was carefully www.xm-bx.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be www.xm-bx.comful to your trading! Thanks for the www.xm-bx.com!
Share, just as simple as a gust of wind can bring refreshment, just as pure as a flower can bring fragrance. The dusty heart gradually opened, and I learned to share, sharing is actually so simple.