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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The rise of the US dollar index has stalled near the resistance level, and the US non-farm data is www.xm-bx.coming." Hope it will be www.xm-bx.comful to you! The original content is as follows:
This week (September 22-27), the foreign exchange market fluctuated between the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts and the resilience of economic data. Although the US dollar index fell slightly on Friday, the weekly line continued its second-week upward trend, highlighting the relative strength www.xm-bx.comed by US economic data. The euro broke the three-week continuous rise pattern, and the weekly line turned down, reflecting the gradually emerging concerns about the euro zone growth; the dollar was close to the recent high against the Japanese yen, and the weekly line was expected to rise in the fifth week, with the Japanese yen under pressure on the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike signal; the pound fell sharply against the US dollar, hitting a seven-week low, and the market risk aversion sentiment warmed up due to weaker than expected UK data. Overall, the highlight of this week is that U.S. consumer spending and PCE inflation data exceeded expectations, driving the confidence of the dollar bulls to recover. At the same time, global trade uncertainty - especially due to the potential impact of Trump's tariff adjustments - has exacerbated market volatility. The U.S. non-farm employment report will become the focus next week, which may further test the Fed's path expectations.
U.S. dollar: This week, the US dollar trend fell first and then rose. Although it fell slightly against a basket of major currencies on Friday, the overall weekly rose by 0.53%, rising for the second consecutive week, indicating that the bulls' momentum was not exhausted. Market traders continued to digest its relatively non-double tone after the Fed's dot chart was released last week. Although the dot chart implies two interest rate cuts in 2025, only one 25 basis point rate cut was expected in 2026, which is different from the market's expectations of three lowers, which to some extent www.xm-bx.coms the weekly resilience of the US dollar.
Next week (September 29 to October 4), global financial markets will continue to listen to the interpretation of the policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman on the interest rate cut in September. At the same time, a number of U.S. economic data and non-farm employment data on Friday will be released. The data will cross-verify the opinions of the Fed Chairman and provide guidance on the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting at the end of October. The euro zone will also release the economy and Inflation data provides a basis for whether the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged, and the RBA, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of Japan have voices. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan will elect a new president on the last weekend, and the new president will become the new prime minister. The political propositions of different prime ministers will affect whether the Bank of Japan will maintain interest rates unchanged.
Euro on Monday District economic data is the first to appear: the final values of the euro zone economic prosperity index, industrial prosperity index and consumer confidence index will be announced one after another. As a core indicator reflecting the economic vitality of the euro zone, it can break the market's doubts about the euro zone stagflation.
The market will usher in the "Policy and Data Double Fight Day" on Tuesday. Australia will decide whether to maintain it. Holding the benchmark interest rate of 3.6% remains unchanged. As a major resource exporter, Australia directly affects its exchange rate, thereby affecting the prices of www.xm-bx.commodities and other goods.
At the same time, the Bank of Japan will release a summary of the opinions of the members of the review www.xm-bx.committee in September, which will provide important guidance for whether the Bank of Japan should keep interest rates unchanged.
The subsequent Chinese PMI data will provide key clues for the recovery of global manufacturing.
The Eurozone Economic Train Hourline in the afternoonGermany will release the annualized CPI in September and retail sales data in August, which will directly affect the market's analysis of whether there is stagflation in the European economy.
In the United States, Chicago PMI and JOLTs job vacancy data will be followed in August. The latter is the leading indicator of the employment market that the Federal Reserve is concerned about. If there is an unexpected decline, it will strengthen the signal of weak employment market and affect the short-term trend of the US dollar.
In addition, three U.S. local Fed chairmen will make speeches, and the market needs to focus on capturing their differences on the job market and the October interest rate cut. At present, there is obvious controversy within the Federal Reserve about the extent of interest rate cuts, and the policy tendency of officials' remarks will directly disturb market expectations.
On Wednesday, my country will start the National Day holiday. The changes in US API and EIA crude oil inventories will be announced in accordance with the practice. The number of US ADP employment in September, as a "forecast indicator" of non-agricultural data, will affect the market's early bet on non-agricultural data, and will attract market attention.
In the evening, the Fed Vice Chairman and two local Fed Chairmans will deliver speeches. As a core policy interpretation occasion after the interest rate cut, his statement on the "employment-inflation" balance will directly guide the market to bet on interest rate bets at the interest rate meeting at the end of October.
4) On Thursday (October 2), the trade account and unemployment benefits were issued at the same time, and the Bank of Canada minutes decrypted the logic of interest rate cuts
On Thursday, the market focused on "global economic and trade and employment clues". Australia's www.xm-bx.commodity and service trade account was released in August. As the core data reflecting its foreign economic and trade activities, its resource export sub-items can reflect the global economic recovery to a certain extent. Afterwards, the euro area unemployment rate data was disclosed that if the unemployment rate rises, it will resonate with economic prosperity indicators, aggravating concerns about the weak economy in the euro area. In the United States, the number of people who requested unemployment benefits this week and last week will reflect the real-time situation of the employment market. www.xm-bx.combined with JOLTs data, the employment market picture can be constructed. If the number of people who have unemployment benefits increases, it will further prove the downward risk of employment. The monthly factory order data of the United States reflects the vitality of manufacturing demand, which has a linkage impact on the US dollar and US stocks. It is worth noting that Canada will release the minutes of the September interest rate meeting in the early morning of the same day, which will elaborate on the details of its decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month. The market can capture the Bank of Canada's judgment on the economic outlook and thus affect the Canadian dollar exchange rate.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech at noon. Japan currently has the possibility of a slight interest rate hike, and its statement on inflation and monetary policy will trigger yen fluctuations; Dallas Fed Chairman Logan's speech in the evening may further supplement the United StatesClues of the Fed's policy position.
5) On Friday (October 3), the finale of the non-agricultural economy set the Federal Reserve's path, and Japan's unemployment rate added a reference The market ushered in the "data end" of this week. In the morning, Japan announced the August unemployment rate. Evening time: This week's final data - the US non-farm employment population was released in September. In the past two weeks, Fed officials have clearly stated that the employment market is the core policy consideration. This data will provide the most critical clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate agenda meeting at the end of October. If new non-agricultural employment continues to be weak (such as lower than expectations or a sharp downward revision), it will significantly increase the certainty of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in October, suppressing the US dollar and benefiting gold; If the data exceeds expectations, it may reverse the market's interest rate cut expectations and boost the US dollar's strength. The current market differences on the Fed's policy path are concentrated on "the balance between weak employment and inflation stickiness". The performance of non-farm data will directly break this balance and trigger violent fluctuations in asset prices. On Saturday (October 4) Japan's Liberal Democratic Party elections were settled, and the new president induced political and economic expectations On Saturday, the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party president elections were officially held. Five candidates - the current Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the current Chief Cabinet Secretary Lin Fangmasato, former Minister of Economic Security, Takashi Saemi Takashi, former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party Toshisuke, and former Minister of Economic Security, Kobayashi Takashi, and former Minister of Economic Security, Kobayashi Takashi will www.xm-bx.compete. 5 people all participated in the elections last year, among which Takashi Saeno once received the most votes in the first round of voting, while Koizumi Shinjiro currently leads the www.xm-bx.com of Liberal Democratic Party www.xm-bx.comers. According to the rules, candidates must obtain more than half of the total number of 590 votes before they can be elected. If no one exceeds half, they will enter the second round of voting. Since the Liberal Democratic Party holds a minority position in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the new president needs to win the www.xm-bx.com of the opposition to be elected prime minister. Their policy tendencies (especially monetary policy and economic stimulus package) will attract market attention: Koizumiro and Lin Fangmai www.xm-bx.com the Bank of Japan's gradual interest rate hike, while Takashi Hayashi's attitude has changed. The policy choice of the new president may affect the yen exchange rate and the trend of Japanese assets. Overall, market fluctuations will focus on "data verification policy" and "political changes will cause chaos", with two-way opportunities coexisting. Investors need to be vigilant about fluctuations caused by data and speeches beyond expectations, and capture certainty in fluctuations The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The rise of the US dollar index stagnates near the resistance level, and the US non-farm data is www.xm-bx.coming heavily" is carefully www.xm-bx.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be www.xm-bx.comful to your trading! Thanks for the www.xm-bx.com! Only the strong know how to fight; the weak are not qualified to fail, but are born to be conquered. Step up to learn the next article!