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Trump's tough attitude towards the government shutdown, OPEC+ will increase production in October

Post time: 2025-09-29 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Trump has a tough attitude towards the government shutdown, and OPEC will increase production again in October." Hope it will be www.xm-bx.comful to you! The original content is as follows:

On September 29, in the early trading of Asian market on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered at 98.02. Last Friday, U.S. inflation data met expectations, strengthened market bets that the Fed could continue to cut interest rates later this year. The US dollar index fluctuated downward, approaching the 98 mark during the session, and finally closed down 0.28% to 98.17, with two consecutive gains on the weekly line. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.176%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to Fed policy interest rates, closed at 3.647%. Spot gold rose sharply before the US session, and once rushed above the $3,780 mark during the session, but failed to stand firm here. It finally closed up 0.31%, closing at $3,760.53/ounce, and recorded a 6 consecutive increase in the weekly line; spot silver rose sharply before the US session and reached a higher than $46, setting a new high in more than 14 years, and finally closed up 1.98% to $46.06/ounce, and the weekly line also recorded a 6 consecutive increase in gold. Crude oil surged and fell. WTI crude oil once rose to a day high of $66.17 during the US session, and then fell sharply, erasing all intraday gains and finally closed down 0.06% to $64.97 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 0.11% to $68.64 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar hovered around 98.02. The eyes of US dollar traders will be locked in a number of key events. ISM manufacturing and service industry PMIs for September were announced on Wednesday and Friday respectively. If S&P's initial global PMI shows weakness in business activities, it may strengthen the market's view that interest rate cuts will be more than once next year. Friday's non-farm yearIndustry reports will be the top priority. The first two months' reports were far lower than expected, and accompanied by a sharp downward revision, the overall employment growth trend pointed to a significant slowdown. If the September data continues to weaken, it may prompt traders to sell the US dollar again and confirm the outlook for dovish interest rates, but this may trigger stock markets' concerns about a broader economic outlook. On the contrary, if the data is surprising, it may trigger the opposite reaction. Wednesday's ADP private employment report will provide employment advance signals. In addition, several Fed officials will make speeches, including Vice Chairman Jefferson, New York Fed Chairman Williams, Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic, Chicago Fed Chairman Goulsby and Dallas Fed Chairman Logan, whose statements may further clarify the policy path. Technically, if the US dollar index closes below www.xm-bx.com level 98.00–98.20, it will move towards the next www.xm-bx.com level 97.10–97.30.

Trumps tough attitude towards the government shutdown, OPEC+ will increase production in October(图1)

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.1719. The highlight of the euro is the preliminary CPI in September in Italy, France and Germany on Tuesday, and the overall CPI in the euro zone on Wednesday. If the data shows that inflation continues to cool down, it may rekindle the market's bet on additional interest rate cuts, lowering the euro to 1.1650; on the contrary, if inflation is stubborn and www.xm-bx.combined with the US non-agricultural market, the euro may rebound. Dekindos' remarks suggest that a strong euro has become a policy pain point, and this week's data may catalyze the adjustment of expectations. Technically, the EUR/USD is trying to return to above resistance level 1.1685–1.1700. If this attempt is successful, the EUR/USD will move towards the next resistance level, which is in the range of 1.1785–1.1800.

Trumps tough attitude towards the government shutdown, OPEC+ will increase production in October(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3422. British pound traders will closely monitor the US non-farm report. If the employment data continues to weaken, it may temporarily relieve the pressure on the pound and push GBP/USD to rebound above 1.3400; on the contrary, if the data is strong, www.xm-bx.combined with the final UK CPI data on Tuesday, the pound may test the www.xm-bx.com of 1.3300. The expectations for the next meeting of BoE remain unchanged, but global events such as the indirect impact of LDP elections may be transmitted to the pound through risk sentiment. Technically, if GBP/USD successfully closes above 1.3400, it will move towards the next resistance level 1.3485–1.3500. RSI is in a mild area, so if the right catalyst appears, there is a lot of room for power.

Trumps tough attitude towards the government shutdown, OPEC+ will increase production in October(图3)

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold hovered around 3782.99. Precious gold after U.S. inflation data meets expectationsThe slight rise has strengthened bets that the Fed may continue to cut interest rates later this year. Traders will closely monitor the Fed's speech later on Monday.

Trumps tough attitude towards the government shutdown, OPEC+ will increase production in October(图4)

Technical: Although it has fallen since its historical highs, gold prices are still technically overbought, and the relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is much higher than 70. Nevertheless, gold is still in the upper half of the nine-month upward channel, trading well above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating that bullish tendencies have not changed, but there is a possibility of a technical pullback. On the downside, $3670/oz (middle point of the rising channel, 20-day moving average) is the first www.xm-bx.com level of gold prices, followed by $3500-3480/oz (static level, integer level, 50-day moving average). Looking upward, the first resistance level of gold prices may be at $3790-$3800/ounce (historical high, integer level). If the above resistance is exceeded, the next obstacle for gold prices is at $3860/ounce (upper limit of the upward channel) and $3900/ounce (integer level).

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading was around 64.84. International oil prices fell in early Asian trading due to a technical pullback. WTI crude oil futures contract fell 1.1% to $65.01 per barrel in the recent month; Brent crude oil futures contract fell 1.0% to $69.44 per barrel. WTI crude oil futures closed up 1.1% last Friday at $65.72 per barrel, the highest closing price since early August, with a weekly increase of 5.3%. Analysts said market concerns about oversupply in the second half of the year also put pressure on oil prices. In the research report, Barbara Lambrecht, www.xm-bx.commodity analyst at the www.xm-bx.commerzbank Institute, pointed out: "The OPEC production survey data, usually released at the end of the month, is likely to confirm that more crude oil is pouring into the market."

Trumps tough attitude towards the government shutdown, OPEC+ will increase production in October(图5)

Technical: Last Friday, crude oil rebounded continuously at a low level, entering a wide range of fluctuations in the short term. The 4-hour chart relies on the middle track to show a continuous rebound. Currently, it is the second wave rebound, and the resistance above is close to the downward trend line, facing a key choice point. The sustainability of long and short positions is a problem. Pay attention to the breaking of the triangle range in the 4-hour structure in the short term, and use the middle track to serve as long defense, and the downward trend line is short defense, and the market continues when the break is continued.

Forex market trading reminder on September 29, 2025

①16:30 UK Central Bank Mortgage License in August

②17:00 Eurozone September Industrial Prosperity Index

③17:00 Eurozone September Economic Prosperity Index

④20:00 Fed Hamak participated in the group discussion

⑤22:00 US Home Signing Sales Index Monthly Rate

⑥22:30 US Dallas Fed Business Activities Index

⑦ 01:30 the next day, Federal Reserve Williams delivered a speech

⑧The next day, 01:30 the Fed Mousalem delivered a speech

⑨The next day, 06:00 the Fed Bostic had a dialogue

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