Wonderful Introduction:
Youth is the nectar made of the blood of will and the sweat of hard work - the fragrance over time; youth is the rainbow woven with endless hope and immortal yearning - gorgeous and brilliant; youth is a wall built with eternal persistence and tenacity - as solid as a soup.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Group]: The US dollar index consolidates near the 98 mark, and the market is waiting for the heavy data of the United States." Hope it will be www.xm-bx.comful to you! The original content is as follows:
On the Asian session on Monday, the US dollar index hovered around 98.02, and the US dollar fell against major currencies last Friday, but the weekly line still rose for the second consecutive week. Previous data released continued to show that the US economy is resilient, which may www.xm-bx.complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to cut interest rates.
U.S. dollar: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.02, and the eyes of US dollar traders will be locked in a number of key events. ISM manufacturing and service industry PMIs for September were announced on Wednesday and Friday respectively. If S&P's initial global PMI shows weakness in business activities, it may strengthen the market's view that interest rate cuts will be more than once next year. Friday's September non-farm employment report will be the top priority. The first two months' reports were far lower than expected, and accompanied by a sharp downward revision, the overall employment growth trend pointed to a significant slowdown. If the September data continues to weaken, it may prompt traders to sell the US dollar again and confirm the outlook for dovish interest rates, but this may trigger the stock market's concerns about a broader economic outlook. On the contrary, if the data is surprising, it may trigger the opposite reaction. Wednesday's ADP private employment report will provide employment advance signals. In addition, several Fed officials will make speeches, including Vice Chairman Jefferson, New York Fed Chairman Williams, Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic, Chicago Fed Chairman Goulsby and Dallas Fed Chairman Logan, whose statements may further clarify the policy path. Technically, the rise of the US dollar index lost momentum around 98.714, the upper edge of the Fibonacci retracement range, while the technical and fundamental resistance superimposed on each other. If it can clearly break through 98.834, it will open a channel for the US dollar index to move towards the psychological threshold of 100.00. However, ifIf you sort it out below 98.238, the risk of the US dollar index pulling back to the 50-day moving average of 98.024 will increase.
The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade held a press conference to release the global economic and trade friction index for July. Data shows that due to the repeated adjustments to the US tariff policy, global economic and trade frictions have heated up again. Judging from the www.xm-bx.comprehensive index, the global economic and trade friction index in July was 110, at a high level. The amount involved in global economic and trade friction measuresIt rose 6.6% year-on-year and 27.6% month-on-month. From the perspective of country index, among the 20 countries (regions) within the monitoring range, the United States, the European Union and Brazil ranked among the top three in the global economic and trade friction index, and the United States involved the largest amount of global economic and trade friction measures, ranking first for 13 consecutive months.
Reuters survey shows that all 39 economists interviewed expect the bank to keep interest rates unchanged this week. While more than 80% of respondents (32 out of 39) are expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points by the end of the year, seven economists now predict no further easing in 2025, www.xm-bx.compared with only one person who held this view in the August survey. The RBA may retain the November easing option without making clear www.xm-bx.commitments. Any statement of intention beyond this range will significantly affect the Australian dollar against the US dollar AUD/USD trend.
New Zealand Fed Chief Economist Conway said that the bank has learned lessons from the soaring inflation after the epidemic and can respond more calmly to economic shocks in the future. After releasing a monetary policy assessment report in Wellington on Monday, Conway said that the Monetary Policy www.xm-bx.committee has gained important understanding of economic activities, corporate pricing behavior and the evolution mechanism of inflation expectations during periods of high inflation and economic volatility. "We now have a deeper understanding of the structural drivers of supply shocks and inflation, and expand the use of high-frequency data for more timely and meticulous monitoring," he said. "We have developed new tools for estimating neutral interest rates and scenario analysis. These improvements ensure that the Monetary Policy www.xm-bx.committee can effectively navigate future shocks while maintaining price stability."
The key question for bond investors in the www.xm-bx.coming days is whether the US monthly employment report will shake their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut as early as October. Traders have cut bets on further easing last week as Fed officials disagree on monetary policy, coupled with some economic data being stronger than expected. But financial markets also face a major variable: if the federal government shuts down from October 1, the release of key data, including this Friday's employment report, may be delayed. James Athey, portfolio manager of Marlborough Investment Management, said: "Employment data is the key engine that drives the current rise - the core of this 'economic weakness-Feder dovish' narrative chain lies in the employment report. Even if the data is released as scheduled, it is obviously necessary to cross a quite high threshold to obtain reports that are weak enough to suppress yields." He also revealed that the current low-equipped U.S. bond positions are currently available.
U.S. President Trump expressed optimism on Sunday about reaching a Gaza armistice, saying that "the Middle East is ushering in a real opportunity to achieve a historic breakthrough." He will hold talks with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Monday. specialAlthough Trump did not disclose the specific details of the hostage-for-ceasefire agreement, Vice President Vance revealed to Fox Sunday News that senior U.S. officials are in "extremely www.xm-bx.complex" negotiations with leaders of Israel and Arab countries. "The Middle East is ushering in a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. For the first time, all parties have reached a consensus for a www.xm-bx.common goal, and we will surely reach an agreement." Trump made a statement through his social platform "Real Social" in a team heading to the Virginia Golf Club. According to U.S. government officials, Trump will meet with Netanyahu at the White House on Monday to finalize the framework of the agreement.
Huatai Securities Research Report stated that the US Congress has not yet passed a short-term financing bill. If a www.xm-bx.compromise is not reached before October 1, the US government will temporarily close. This is the second time that the U.S. government is facing the risk of shutdown since Trump took over the White House again. Unlike the government shutdown storm in March this year, both the Republican and the Democratic Party believe that the government shutdown is more beneficial to themselves, especially the Democratic Party, who believes that www.xm-bx.compromise on the short-term financing bill this time is harmful or not. In the current political environment, we believe that the probability of the two parties reaching an agreement before October 1 is low, and the government is closed or the benchmark situation. According to rough estimates, the average weekly shutdown of the US government will drag on the quarterly GDP by about 0.1pp. The closing crisis has once again strengthened concerns about US political polarization and US fiscal sustainability. Coupled with the strengthening of recent economic data, US bond volatility may rise, and if the US dollar continues to rebound, market liquidity may be tight in the short term.
The above content is all about "[XM Group]: The US dollar index consolidates near the 98 mark, and the market is waiting for the heavy US data". It is carefully www.xm-bx.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be www.xm-bx.comful to your trading! Thanks for the www.xm-bx.com!
Only the strong know how to fight; the weak are not qualified to fail, but are born to be conquered. Step up to learn the next article!