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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Foreign Exchange Market www.xm-bx.comment】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be www.xm-bx.comful to you! The original content is as follows:
The risk of the US government shutdown suppresses the US dollar: US government funds will be exhausted on the evening of September 30, and the two parties are still in a deadlock, and the shutdown has reached the last window. Affected by this, the US dollar index fell below the 50-day moving average and fell to 97.774. The US dollar faced a key www.xm-bx.com level of 97.412. If it fell below, it would confirm that the short-term trend would turn bearish. This has given other currencies a boost to appreciate relative to the US dollar, such as the euro/dollar rising to around 1.1717, and the pound sterling continues to rise against the US dollar.
Federal interest rate cut expectations have increased: The U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index released last Friday meets market expectations, strengthening market confidence that the Fed may cut interest rates at its October and December meetings. Traders currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 42 basis points in the rest of the year and a cumulative rate cut of 105 basis points by the end of 2026, which makes the US dollar less attractive and is beneficial to non-U.S. currencies.
Bank of Japan's policy rate adjustment expectations heat up: Bank of Japan's member Asahi Noguchi said that economic data showed that Japan has made steady progress in achieving the 2% inflation target, and the need to adjust policy rate "is more urgent than ever." This remark has triggered market expectations that the Bank of Japan may adjust interest rates, providing certain www.xm-bx.com for the yen.
The sales index of existing home contracts in the United States rose sharply in August: the sales index of existing home contracts in the United States rose 4% month-on-month to 74.7, a five-month high, far exceeding market expectations. This data shows that the US real estate market performs well and has a certain www.xm-bx.com for the US dollar, but due to other factors, the US dollar is still on a downward trend overall, but this data isThe impact of related currency pairs is still worthy of attention.
Fed officials have differences over interest rate cuts: New York Fed Chairman Williams pointed out that the current policy still has a tightening effect, which will www.xm-bx.com curb inflation, and there is still a long way to go to achieve the 2% inflation target. Cleveland Fed Chairman Hamak clearly opposes interest rate cuts, worried that inflation may continue to be higher than the target until 2028. The different views of Fed officials on interest rate cuts have made the market confused about the Fed's future policy path, increasing uncertainty in the foreign exchange market, and not conducive to the continued rise of non-US currencies.
The U.S. Dallas Fed Business Activity Index fell in September: The U.S. Dallas Fed Business Activity Index fell to -8.7 in September, indicating that manufacturing activity further shrank. This data shows that the poor economic situation in the US manufacturing industry may put some pressure on the US dollar, but due to the www.xm-bx.combined impact of other factors, the US dollar's trend is not www.xm-bx.completely dominated by this data.
Trump plans to impose heavy taxes on overseas films and furniture: US President Trump once again threatens to impose 100% tariffs on all films produced outside the United States and impose high tariffs on countries that "didn't make furniture in the United States." This policy may trigger an escalation of global trade tensions, increase market risk preferences, be unfavorable to risky assets, and may have certain negative impacts on non-US currencies.
OPEC+ production increase plan suppresses oil prices: OPEC+ plans to increase oil production again in November, and Iraq's Kurdistan region resumes exporting oil through Türkiye, enhancing global supply prospects. U.S. crude oil trading was around $63.14 per barrel, and oil prices closed down 3% on Monday. A decline in oil prices may put pressure on currencies in some oil exporters, such as the Canadian dollar.
The Baltic dry bulk index fell sharply: On September 29, 2025, the Baltic dry bulk index (BDI) was 2220 points, the lowest in 4 days, down 1.73% month-on-month, the largest drop since September 3, 2025, and the second consecutive day of decline. The decline in this data indicates that global trade activity may slow down, which may have some negative impact on both the global economy and the foreign exchange market.
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