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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Market Review]: Weak employment data drags down the US dollar." Hope it will be www.xm-bx.comful to you! The original content is as follows:
XM Forex APP News--During the European trading session on Thursday (October 2), the US dollar index (DXY) fell slightly, with an intraday report of 97.58, a drop of 0.16%. Following a slight rebound overnight, the index lacks momentum. The US dollar index has fallen for the fifth consecutive trading day. The room for further rise of the US dollar is limited, and market sentiment remains cautious. Traders are closely following the upcoming Federal Open Market www.xm-bx.committee (FOMC) speech to be released during the North American trading session for direction guidance. As unemployment figures will not be released today, Challenger's www.xm-bx.company announced a job cut in September could have a bigger impact. The dollar is still weak, but in the absence of strong negative factors, the market may become more picky and not sell the dollar across the board. Weak employment data strengthens expectations of interest rate cuts The latest ADP employment report highlights the weak trend in the labor market. Private www.xm-bx.companies laid off 32,000 employees in September, the largest drop since March 2023. August data also revised down from the previously announced new jobs to a decrease of 3,000. This situation strengthens market expectations that the Fed cuts twice before the end of the year, and the dollar faces downward pressure as investors expect policies to be more relaxed. In September, the American Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rebounded slightly to 49.1, but was still in the contraction range for the seventh consecutive month, with limited www.xm-bx.com for the US dollar. The weak labor market has exacerbated expectations for further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. CME's FedWatch tool shows that the market currently believes that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is 99%, while the possibility of another rate cut in December is87%. Government shutdowns exacerbate dollar resistance The partial shutdown of the U.S. government has caused uncertainty, increasing the risk of delays in the release of key data, including Friday's non-farm employment report. The current economic signal is already weak, and the lack of timely data may exacerbate the volatility of the US dollar. In the short term, the US dollar index may maintain range fluctuations. Affected by weak workforce data, Fed dovish expectations and political uncertainty, even if there is a rebound, it will face resistance. Given the uncertainty of salary data release and the lack of overall data, the release of ADP data is expected to have a longer-term negative impact, which limit directional trading opportunities in the forex market. In this environment, the dollar-JPY exchange rate will continue to decline, especially given that the euro is facing more technical resistance.
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