The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates more slowly, and the Australian dollar rises sharply. Pay attention to the US employment data

December 9 The Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened against rivals on Tuesday following the release of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy. In the second half of the day, JOLTS job openings data for September and October will be closely watched, along with the US's weekly ADP employment change data, in preparation for the Federal Reserve's much-anticipated policy meeting.

As expected, the RBA kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.6% after the December meeting. In a policy statement, the RBA pointed out that recent data showed that inflation risks have tilted to the upside, but that it will take longer to assess the persistence of inflationary pressures. www.xm-bx.commenting on the policy outlook at the post-meeting press conference, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock said: "The outlook is a prolonged pause or a rate hike, but that does not imply a possibility." After falling slightly on Monday, AUD/USD took the lead in Asian trading, rising more than 0.3% on the day to close to 0.6650.

The U.S. dollar (USD) index edged higher during the U.S. session on Monday, ending the day slightly higher as major Wall Street indexes turned lower. The U.S. dollar index struggled to support itself after recovering on Monday and was flat near 99.00 during early European trading on Tuesday.

On Monday night, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 5% tariff on Mexico if it did not immediately provide additional water to help American farmers, accusing Mexico of violating a decades-old treaty that allows American farmers to obtain water from the Rio Grande River. Additionally, Trump said he would impose tough tariffs on Canadian fertilizers to boost domestic production if he deems it necessary. U.S. stock futures were flat in early trade Tuesday.

Foreign exchange marketBasic market situation:

EUR/USD failed to make a decisive move in any direction and ended flat on Monday. The pair held around 1.1650 at the start of the European session. European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Joachim Nagel will speak later in the meeting.

GBP/USD remained relatively flat for a second day on Tuesday, trading in a tight range below 1.3350.

USD/JPY stabilized near 156.00 after rising about 0.4% on Monday. Japanese Prime Minister Koichi Sanae said on Tuesday she would make economic and fiscal decisions at the appropriate time, adding that she would consider interest rates, foreign exchange rates and prices.

Bulk market fundamentals:

Gold fell slightly on Monday and was lower in early trading on Tuesday. Gold is currently in negative territory around $4,180. Oil prices continued to fall after falling 2% in the previous session. Market participants are closely watching peace talks to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Brent crude oil futures fell 0.3% to $62.32 per barrel. U.S. WTI crude oil fell 0.41% to $58.64 per barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends:

Euro: EUR/USD remained consolidated below 1.1681, with the intraday bias remaining neutral. Further gains are beneficial, and the small support at 1.1590 still exists. The corrective decline from 1.1917 may have ended at 1.1467. Above 1.1681 will first target the 1.1727 resistance. A break above this resistance would solidify this view and bring about a retest of the 1.1917 high. However, a breakout of 1.1590 would revive the short-term bears and bring about a retest of the 1.1467 low.

GBP: GBP/USD is trading below 1.3384, with the intraday bias remaining neutral. Support remains at 1.3178 and further gains are expected. As mentioned earlier, the pullback from 1.3787 should be www.xm-bx.completed as a three-wave correction to 1.3008. On the upside, above 1.3384 will target the 1.3470 resistance level. A decisive breakout here would bring about a retest of the high of 1.3787.

JPY: The outlook for USD/JPY is unchanged, with the intraday bias currently remaining neutral. On the downside, a break below 154.33 would target the 55 DEMA (currently 153.27). A strong breakout of this level would extend the short-term top of 157.88 to the 150.90 cluster (38.2% retracement, 139.87 to 157.88, 151.00). On the upside, however, a break above the 156.17 resistance would signal that the pullback is www.xm-bx.complete and lead to a retest high of 157.88.

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